Case-Based Reasoning for Weather Prediction

C. Vasudevan

Computer-based forecasting of weather was first experimented in 1950 at Princeton University. Since then, there have been newer and more accurate methods to predict the incoming climate. One common practice of weather prediction is by using the general circulation models which are based on the laws of physics. These models are highly complex and computational intensive limiting their use for only short range predictions and that too needing supercomputers. The accuracy of forecasting deteriorates rapidly for periods longer than 48 hours and it often becomes minimal beyond 10 days due to imperfections in the models. The analog technique of weather forecasting is another approach which searches for periods in the past when the current conditions were similar and use the past spatial patterns as analogs. Long term trends and recurring events guide the decisions. This is more relevant for long range predictions as well as in single station predictions. The araudog method is relatively simple compared to the complex processes of development, validation, use, and maintenance of numerical models.


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