Fingerprinting Leading Indicators of WMD Terrorism: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Lawrence A. Kuznar, Victor Asal, Karl Rethemeyer, Krishna Pattipati, Robert Popp, Steven Shellman

In this paper, we present a holistic, integrated social science analysis of the leading indicators of WMD terrorism that advances what is known about the social conditions that foster WMD terrorism. This exercise illustrates how a multidisciplinary team of researchers, including political scientists, anthropologists and computer engineers combined state-of-the-art methodologies to fuse disparate data sources to produce research findings not traditionally possible. This report describes the basic theories of WMD terrorism tested by researchers, the sources of their data and special challenges they met, the varied analytical methodologies used, and a brief overview of key findings.

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