Resilience, Climate Change, and Security: Modeling the Connections

Elizabeth L. Malone, R. César Izaurralde1, Allison M. Thomson, and Larry G. Morgan

The increasing range and complexity of global-scale problems call for both interdisciplinary approaches and ever-increasingly sophisticated modeling tools to use in analyzing issues and forecasting potential issues and their resolution. This study has focused on the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) as a developing region with essential roles in the global issues of climate change, terrorism/national security, and overall economic development and well-being. The research is integrating the domains of social conditions, technology, environment, climate change, food security, terrorism, and national security. In a new modeling space developed in STELLA, researchers are drawing upon three existing models (MiniCAM, EPIC, and VRIM), adding governance and societal factors, and focusing on integrated issues such as the expansion of biofuels production. The working prototype draws on all of these models and knowledge domains to address issues relevant to analysts and policymakers re tradeoffs in food and fuel security in biofuel production.

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