Reading the Behavior Signature: Predicting Leader Personality from Individual and Group Actions

Paul J. Sticha, Elise A. Weaver, Joseph A. Tatman, Suzanne M. Mahoney, Dennis M. Buede

The personality of a leader can be used to predict that leader's actions as well as those of the group that he or she leads. However, except for a small number of well-known leaders, the personality of leaders must be inferred from actions and other evidence. We have developed a Bayesian network to infer leader personality variables related to violence from evidence of leader and group actions and the situational demands and context in which the actions occur. The network was applied to a historical situation, and its ability to distinguish extreme personalities was established.

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