Technosocial Modeling of IED Threat Scenarios and Attack

Paul Whitney, Alan Brothers, Garill Coles, Jonathan Young, Katherine Wolf, Sandy Thompson, David Niesen, John Madsen, Cindy Henderson

This paper describes an approach for integrating sociological and technical models to develop more complete threat assessment. Current approaches to analyzing and addressing threats tend to focus on the technical factors. This paper addresses development of predictive models that encompass behavioral as well as these technical factors. Using improvised explosive device (IED) attacks as motivation, this model supports identification of intervention activities 'left of boom' as well as prioritizing attack modalities. We show how Bayes nets integrate social factors associated with IED attacks into general threat model containing technical and organizational steps from planning through obtaining the IED to initiation of the attack. The models are computational representations of process models and associated social factors. When combined with technical models, the resulting model provides improved knowledge integration into threat assessment for monitoring. This paper discusses the construction of IED threat scenarios, integration of diverse factors into an analytical framework for threat assessment, indicator identification for future threats, and future research directions.

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