Chance Discovery: The Discovery and Management of Chance Events:
Papers from the AAAI Fall Symposium
Yukio Ohsawa, Peter McBurney, and Simon Parsons, Cochairs
Chance events are rare or novel events with potentially significant consequences for decision-making, i.e., events to be conceived as a risk or an opportunity. This symposium will be devoted to questions: How may we predict, identify or explain chance events and their consequences? ("chance discovery") and How may we assess, prepare for or manage them? ("chance management").
An agent -- human, robot or software agent -- engaged in planning needs to adopt a view of the future: In order to decide goals, and to decide the best sequence of actions to achieve these goals, how can an agent or agents discover rare or novel events and forecast their consequences? The consequences of such events may significantly impede or facilitate the achievement of agents' goals, but their unlikeness makes them difficult to predict or explain by methods that use historical data or pattern-matching.
One can think of chance discovery as a search of maximum or minimum of a surface whose shape is unknown, in a space whose dimensions may also be unknown. The focus on the agent and its environment as one interacting system can be another point. This symposium will seek to bring together members of the AI community with people from various relevant domains listed below, to create and share approaches to chance discovery/management.