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Wanna Bet? Seventeen of the world's most wired minds stake their names - and their cash - on the future. By Martha Baer, Chris Baker, Alix Berger, Ted Greenwald, and Jenn Kahn. Wired (May 2002; 10.05). "The Long Bets Foundation, a new project masterminded by Well founder Stewart Brand and Wired editor at large Kevin Kelly, hopes to raise the quality of our collective foresight by incorporating money and accountability into the process of debate. ... Bettors designate nonprofits to receive the proceeds." Here's the AI long bet: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test. Can We See the Near Future - Year 2025? - "Experts debate where we've been, what we've learned, what the future holds in store, and if it really is possible to forecast the not too distant future." This video program is part of the USC Presents...Closer To Truth series available from the ResearchChannel ("a non-profit organization founded in 1996 by a consortium of leading research universities, institutions and corporate research centers dedicated to creating a widely accessible voice for research through video and Internet channels"). Panelists for this July 27, 2004 program include "Edward Feigenbaum, professor of computer science at Stanford where he is co-scientific director of the Knowledge Systems Laboratory." The Future Needs Futurists. By Joanna Glasner. Wired News (October 7, 2005). "Being a futurist sure sounds like a fun job. Observe the world at large, amass predictions and inspire awe at one's visionary talents. But is there a future in it? According to the Association of Professional Futurists, prospects are starting to look quite promising. As companies and government agencies grapple with the seemingly scorching rate of technological innovation and change, more are engaging the services of self-described futurists for advice on how to adapt. ... 'Making future forecasting more of a formal field could be a great step toward moving some of the techniques into public policy,' said Howard Rheingold, a futurist and author. 'I'm not saying it's possible to predict the future, but grappling with what's happening today and where it's going is an important priority that seems to be ignored on the policy level.'" AI Magazine's Special 25th Anniversary Issue, 26(4): Winter 2005. As stated in David Leake's Editorial Introduction: "The year 2005 marks the twenty-fifth anniversary of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence. This special issue celebrates the anniversary by presenting perspectives on AAAI's history, on the future of AAAI, and on the past and future of artificial intelligence. It highlights the many voices contributing to AAAI by featuring personal remembrances and visions from many people, including founders of AAAI, presidents who guided the society's development, and others spurring on AI research and applications. While a single issue can only scratch the surface, this special issue clearly illustrates the spirit, accomplishment, and optimism that will drive the next 25 years."
Introducing the Future of AI. James Hendler's Letter from the Editor. IEEE Intelligent Systems (May/June 2006) 21(3) 2-4. "To explore our field's future, we invited a number of well-known AI scientists to contribute articles speculating about where AI is headed and how we might get there."
The business of future gazing. Click, BBC TV's technology show, presented by Spencer Kelly (February 3, 2006). "It is the futurologist's job to map out a path for their employers, spotting business opportunities and risks, identifying social changes, and steering their company towards the best profits. Futurologist for BT, Ian Pearson says: 'I've got a lot of experience of working in different aspects of engineering, so I've got a good feel of how fast the different areas are going. So if I'm tracking what people are starting to do research and development on today, by going to conferences and reading technical magazines and stuff, I've got a fair idea of what's likely to be around, and I can guess fairly accurately how long it's going to take before it comes.' ... The latest technology timeline released by BT suggests hundreds of different inventions for the next few decades including: ... * 2017: first hotel in orbit * 2020: artificial intelligence elected to parliament * 2040: robots become mentally and physically superior to humans.... If ever there was a symbol of the third millennium, surely it is technology in human form." Use the sidebar link to watch the programme. What do futurists really know? At the futurists’ convention, there’s always another tomorrow. The Practical Futurist column by Michael Rogers. MSNBC.com (August 16, 2006). "[W]hat about the future of futurism itself? The World Future Society’s expanding membership -- which includes both professionals and amateurs -- seems to suggest that it’s bright. A number of U.S. colleges and universities now provide courses in futurism, several of them award degrees and one Australian university even plans to offer a doctorate. And there are already several associations for professional futurists discussing whether there should be actual requirements for being a futurist. That, of course, may prove to be a little tricky -- if accreditation is based on results, then that could be a lengthy licensing period indeed. But in the end, making lots of accurate predictions isn’t necessarily the job of the futurist. It’s more the act of stimulating creative thought about the future that, in turn, influences how we act today. At the Toronto conference, veteran futurist Joseph Coates put it this way: 'Being right or wrong isn’t so much the point as being useful. The ultimate purpose is to change people’s minds.'" Must-know terms for the 21st Century intellectual - Redux. George P. Dvorsky's Sentient Developments Blog (January 11, 2007). "Before I get into the list, however, I'd like to clarify the purpose of this exercise. First, I am trying to come up with a list of the most fundamental and crucial terms that are coming to define and will soon re-define the human condition...." Futurology: How to use science fiction. The Economist (June 8, 2006; subscription req'd). "Three tests to evaluate visions of the future ... First, is the imagined world really an allegory for some aspect of the present day? ... The second test for evaluating a sci-fi scenario is whether it makes the mistake of assuming that technology alone shapes the future. ... The final test is to ask whether a prediction is compelling enough to become self-fulfilling, by inspiring inventors to implement it. ..." The World in 2030. Commissioned by Plastics Europe (November 2007).
March 14, 2008: Wave goodbye to the nine to five, and say hello to virtual enterprise - Executives predict exodus from traditional workplace to more home-working. By John Carvel. The Guardian. "Within a decade millions of workers will be at home juggling their careers with caring for children and older relatives, Britain's leading management institute forecast yesterday. ... In a list of scenarios drawn up by the Chartered Management Institute and launched at a seminar in London yesterday by Sir John Sunderland, chairman of Cadbury Schweppes, companies were warned to prepare for a range of more remote possibilities.... Brave new world: Surprise scenarios for the future - Businesses are urged to prepare for 16 'surprise scenarios' that could change their future. The report acknowledges these may not be the most accurate predictions of the world in 2018, but says businesses should be ready for possibilities including: ... A world run by robots: Robots with artificial intelligence will be put into management positions. They will not necessary have heads and arms. Software decision-making - already used in financial management - will increase dependence on systems. 'Regular updates on such developments and building up a knowledge base about the use and misuse of them may be an appropriate precaution,' the institute said." February 29, 2008: Humans Are Just Machines for Propagating Memes. By Kim Zette. Wired. "In the 1970s, Richard Dawkins coined the term 'meme' in his book The Selfish Gene to refer to aspects of human culture and how they evolve in a way that's analogous to how genes evolve. Since then, the study of memes has become an evolving meme itself. A meme is an idea or thing that is passed from person to person and is either adopted for its usefulness or other purpose -- in some cases becoming a wildly popular idea that can't be stopped -- or abandoned to die a quick and ignoble death. A meme can be a song or snippet of a song, a dance, an urban legend, an expression or behavior, a product brand or even a religion. British scholar Susan Blackmore, who delivered a presentation on memes at the TED [Technology, Entertainment, Design] conferenceThursday morning, says that human beings are being overrun by memes that want to use us for their own advancement. Wired.com spoke with her at TED. ... Blackmore: ... Up until very recently in the world of memes, humans did all the varying and selecting. We had machines that copied -- photocopiers, printing presses -- but only very recently do we have artificial machines that also produce the variations, for example (software that) mixes up ideas and produces an essay or neural networks that produce new music and do the selecting. There are machines that will choose which music you listen to. It's all shifting that way because evolution by natural selection is inevitable. There's a shift to the machines doing all of that. We're not there yet. But once we're there, there's going to be evolution of memes out there that is totally out of our control. Wired: What will that look like? Blackmore: Well, it will look like humans are just a minor thing on this planet with masses (of) silicon-based machinery using us to drag stuff out of the ground to build more machines. ..." January 3, 2008: Futurists foresee invisibility cloak on horizon - Group doesn't make predictions, but it has spotted trends early. By Shannon Proudfoot. CanWest News via the The Edmonton Journal. "'We've strived over the years to do one thing and to really excel at it, and that is to be a neutral clearing house for ideas on the future,' says Patrick Tucker, director of communications for the [World Future Society] and editor of its magazine, The Futurist. ... So what could 2008 bring? The society forecasts that the growth of surveillance technologies and voyeuristic venues like YouTube will ultimately spell the death of any notions of 'privateness.' At the same time, increasingly sophisticated virtual reality graphics and artificial intelligence will allow computers to capture someone's voice and appearance, even their personality and knowledge. This could create 'virtual immortality' in which it's possible to visit with the dearly departed long after they've shuffled off this mortal coil. ... In the intellectual sphere, Tucker also sees the deeply ambivalent potential for technology to create a society of 'educated illiterates.' Artificial intelligence will evolve to the point where we can simply ask our computers a verbal question to get any information we need, he says." January 2008 [issue date]: Q&A - Author Nicholas Carr on the Terrifying Future of Computing. By Spencer Reiss. Wired (Issue 16.01). "Nicholas Carr is high tech's Captain Buzzkill -- the go-to guy for bad news. A former executive editor of Harvard Business Review, he tossed a grenade under big-budget corporate computing with his 2004 polemic Does IT Matter? (Answer: Not really, because all companies have it in spades.) Carr's new book, The Big Switch, targets the emerging 'World Wide Computer' -- dummy PCs tied to massive server farms way up in the data cloud. We asked Carr why he finds the future of computing so scary. ... Carr: The scariest thing about Stanley Kubrick's vision wasn't that computers started to act like people but that people had started to act like computers. We're beginning to process information as if we're nodes; it's all about the speed of locating and reading data. We're transferring our intelligence into the machine, and the machine is transferring its way of thinking into us." December 24, 2007: IBM dishes five predictions for the future - IBM's last installment of its annual 'Next Five in Five' list looks forward to intelligent traffic systems and energy grids, more organic food, and better technology for doctors. By Chris Kanaracus. IDG News Service / InfoWorld. "[IBM] said that during the next five years, a 'wave of connectivity' between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly, drive down pollution, and get you to your destination easier, 'without the stress.' This will be accomplished through 'intelligent' traffic systems that automatically adjust light patterns and shift traffic to alternative routes, as well as cars that exhibit 'reflexes' thanks to communication with other vehicles and roadside sensors, according to IBM. ... IBM's list received a measured nod from Edward Cornish, editor of The Futurist magazine and past president of the World Future Society, an organization based in Bethesda, Maryland. ... The Futurist has released its own list of predictions for 2008 and beyond. The organization contends, among other things, that ... 'nonhuman entities,' such as robots fueled by artificial intelligence, will make more decisions." December 7, 2007: The Robots Among Us - If robotics technology now stands where computing did in the '70s, what can we expect in the future? By Tom Abate. San Francisco Chronicle (SFGate.com). "'Sometime in the next 30, 40, 50 years we will have human-level machine intelligence,' predicts Marshall Brain, a computer science teacher turned author and technology forecaster. 'We are the only intelligence ever to have evolved, there's no evidence to indicate anyone else can do what we do,' says Brain, 46, who wonders how humans will respond when their tools start talking back. 'What is about to happen is totally unprecedented: a second intelligent species is poised to appear,' he says. It may seem like a science fiction leap to go from the dust-sucking Roomba to the walking, talking machines of movie and television fame. But David Calkins, 39, director of the San Francisco State University Robotics Institute, says it isn't so much that the robots are coming as that they are already working for us under different names. 'Why do we call a Roomba a robot and not a dishwasher?' asks Calkins, arguing that we already rely on increasingly clever special-purpose devices and programs such as search engines, which use rudimentary artificial intelligence to answer queries and rank replies." December 2, 2007: Artificial Intelligence Enters Brave New World [radio broadcast / podcast]. Rick Kleffel reporting for NPR's Weekend Edition Sunday. "The idea of what Artificial Intelligence should be has evolved over the past 50 years -- from solving puzzles and playing chess to emulating the abilities of a child: walking, recognizing objects. A recent conference brought together those who invent the future. A recent 'Singularity Summit' brought together those who imagine -- and invent -- the future. Rick Kleffel from member station KUSP reports." November/December 2007: Prediction is difficult, especially about the future - Michael Gough assesses the future of the IT industry and highlights some of the likely key developments. ITadviser (Issue 52). "At the 2007 conference for the Council of Professors and Heads of Computer Science (CPHC) there was recognition that computing had to be 'embedded' in all disciplines. This is not the end of computer science, simply the recognition that science, engineering and technology, commerce, media and communications, health etc. all require its capabilities directly applied to advancing their agenda, knowledge and capabilities. For me computer science was always an applied discipline and this realisation simply means an opportunity to regroup and refocus its attentions on computing architecture, programming languages, the human-computer interface, parallel computing, and artificial intelligence.... The next generation of electronic devices will extend the ubiquity of computing significantly. In 1964 IBM released the 360 mainframe. At that time experts confidently stated that only a few of these machines would be needed to do all the tasks that could be conceived! Essentially, one computer serving millions of people. The ubiquitous computing revolution is characterised by everyone having not one but dozens of computers doing many utility and specialised tasks; i.e. many computers for everyone.The Virtual Retinal Display typifies this scenario. The user is wirelessly connected to the internet. A camera mounted on the frame offers real time image (people, places, etc.) recognition. Intelligent agents running in the embedded computer display information on the inside of the lens of the glasses. Voice recognition and synthesis provide the human interface. Essentially, you are a node on the internet!" November 11, 2007: The Grill - Ray Kurzweil talks about 'augmented reality' and The Singularity - The futurist and inventor talks about pervasive computing, augmented reality, and storage as a philosophical issue. By Ian Lamont. Computerworld. "[Q] How will hardware technologies evolve over the next 10 years? [A] If you go out 10 years, computers are not going to be these rectangular objects we carry around. They’re going to be extremely tiny. They’re going to be everywhere. There’s going to be pervasive computing. It’s going to be embedded in the environment, in our clothing. It’s going to be self-organizing. ... [Q] What’s your definition of artificial intelligence? [A] Artificial intelligence is the ability to perform a task that is normally performed by natural intelligence, particularly human natural intelligence. We have in fact artificial intelligence that can perform many tasks that used to require -- and could only be done by -- human intelligence. There are hundreds of examples today, and they are deeply embedded in our economic infrastructure. All communication is governed by intelligent algorithms that route and connect the information. Programs are embedded into computer-assisted design systems. AI flies and lands airplanes, guides intelligent weapons systems, places billions of dollars of financial transactions each day. These examples are narrow AI, in that they are performing specific tasks, very often sophisticated tasks that required human experts to perform. [Q] What could slow down the arrival of strong AI, or of the 'smarter than human' technologies you call the Singularity? [A] There are really two areas to think about. One is hardware and one is software. There’s a strong consensus that the hardware will be available. So, the key issue is how long it will take to get the software and science. I make the case that a 20-year horizon is a conservative estimate, based on the exponential progress we’re making in reverse-engineering the human brain. ..."
November 10, 2007: Automatic for the people - Robots may soon be transforming our working lives in the same way that computers once did. But will progress come at a human cost? By Michael Fitzpatrick. The Guardian. "Fulfilling the dreams of bosses everywhere, Wakamaru San is never late, doesn't gossip or throw sickies, and somewhat unnervingly never stops smirking. That's because one-metre tall Wakamaru is an android, whose idea of a tea break is to find the nearest power socket and recharge itself when its battery runs low. This Mitsubishi-made winsome bot is part of the vanguard of so-called 'second generation' robots, autonomous machines designed to help around the home and workplace - permanently. In the first serious attempt to commercialise a robot that can work in the office, 10 little Wakamarus touting 'strong receptionist skills' were recently taken on by an employment agency in Japan, where they are now for hire for £12,000 a year. ... So where does that leave us less-than-dedicated, sickly humans? Will the coming revolution make work optional, giving us rich lives filled with leisure, even 'creating Athens without the slaves', as the former Conservative cabinet minister Peter Walker put it back in 1983? Or are we headed for at least 50% unemployment and massive social unrest?" November 9, 2007: DIUS Minister speaks out on UK science policy. PublicTechnology.net / also available from the Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills (DIUS) . "Ian Pearson, the Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills Minister of State for Science and Innovation gave the first Sir Gareth Roberts Science Policy Lecture at The Science Council on 6 November 2007. This is what he said: 'It is an honour to be asked to give this, the First Annual Roberts Lecture on science policy. ... In this lecture I propose to develop three themes: the need to drive up the supply of highly trained scientists and engineers, if the UK is to remain competitive in this century; the central importance of the science and society agenda; and how the scientific and research community can best help us to respond to the major challenges we face over the next decade and beyond. I will argue that despite a great deal of excellent work to date, more needs to be done on STEM [science, technology, engineering and mathematical] skills and to underpin that vital work we need to refresh our science and society vision for the new environment we find ourselves in. I want to launch today a debate about what that new vision should be and how collectively we can up our game when it comes to communicating the value of science and education. I will further argue that cross-disciplinary research must become an increasing priority in the inter-connected world of the future. Lastly, I will raise the question of the implications that this cross-disciplinary approach and the blurring of traditional scientific boundaries has for the STEM agenda going forward. ... Developments in computing with artificial intelligence will also bring the potential for major ethical dilemmas - we have all seen the Terminator films - reinforcing the need for open public dialogue. Scientists may have discovered it but they cannot operate in a vacuum. They are part of the society in which they and the outcomes of their research operate. We will need to engage at an early stage with our publics and we need to recognise that there will be valid concerns and genuine ethical dilemmas in certain areas of research.'" November - December 2007 [issue date]: Top Ten Forecasts for 2008 and Beyond. Futurist Magazine. "Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, and the end of the Cold War. Here are the editors' top 10 forecasts from Outlook 2008: ... 10. More decisions will be made by nonhuman entities. Electronically enabled teams in networks, robots with artificial intelligence, and other noncarbon life-forms will make financial, health, educational, and even political decisions for us. Reason: Technologies are increasing the complexity of our lives ...." October 22, 2007: The future is here right now, if you can read the signs. Leon Gettler. The Age. "Mr [Ray] Hammond, a European author and futurologist, says Maria is very much a sign of things to come. The signs are already there. "My particular approach is to study trends in the present and work out the number of ways that they may extrapolate into the future," Mr Hammond says. ... I use Google a metaphor for an emerging intelligence. Every single day that I use Google, and I use it constantly, I notice that it's getting a little bit more capable at understanding what I mean when I don't say precisely what I mean. 'Now, if brainpower in the computer is doubling every 12 months and Google is gathering every single minute of every day the intentions of all the humans in the planet, imagine where that might lead in 10 years. And if we accept that Moore's law (that the number of transistors on a chip should double every 18 months to two years) will continue, somewhere between the years 2020 to 2035, artificial intelligence will equal human intelligence and by definition, it will then double it.' The result, he says, will be a rupture in human evolution. 'We are effectively inventing a new species. So where does that leave us then? In control.'" October 16, 2006: BT Futurist - AI entities will win Nobel prizes by 2020 - In this interview, [Ian] Pearson talks about his profession, explains why he doesn't think we will understand intelligent machines when they finally arise, and warns to the big ethical dilemmas our technological civilization will have to face sooner or later. By Peter Moon. Computerworld. "[Q] Ten years ago, in May 1997, Deep Blue won the chess tournament against Gary Kasparov. Do you consider, like Kasparov did, that was the first glimpse of a new kind of intelligence? [A] Yes, it's a very good example of what you can do with computer-based intelligence. What it pointed out was that it doesn't have to do things the same way that people do in order to achieve goals that people use their intelligence to do. Deep Blue didn't work the same way as people. ... Nonetheless, I think the task of producing machines with consciousness or self awareness is still important. We will probably make conscious machines sometime between 2015 and 2020, I think. But it probably won't be like you and I. It will be conscious and aware of itself and it will be conscious in pretty much the same way as you and I, but it will work in a very different way. It will be an alien. It will be a different way of thinking from us, but nonetheless still thinking. It doesn't have to look like us in order to be able to think the same way. ... [Q] In this context, can we consider today's Second Life as some kind of "The Matrix" 1.0, being the real Matrix a combination with Second Life and artificial intelligence? ... [Q] understand you're interested in NBIC (nanoscience, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science) convergence. A lot of people have real concerns about it.... [Q] Right now the Pentagon is using some 5,000 robots in Iraq and Afghanistan, patrolling cities, disarming explosives or making reconnaissance flights. The next step is allowing them to carry weapons. Does this way lead to a Terminator scenario? ..." October 13, 2007: The plan for eternal life [with related video interviews]. By Danielle Egan. New Scientist (Issue 2625). "This is the opening session of the ninth annual meeting of the World Transhumanist Association (WTA) in Chicago. Sandberg and his fellow transhumanists plan to bypass death by using technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), genetic engineering and nanotechnology to radically accelerate human evolution, eventually merging people with machines to make us immortal. This may not be possible yet, the transhumanists reason, but as long as they live long enough - a few decades perhaps - the technology will surely catch up. To many, these ideas sound seriously scary, and transhumanists have been attacked for jeopardising the future of humanity. ... Now this small-scale movement aims to go mainstream. WTA membership has risen from 2000 to almost 5000 in the past seven years, and transhumanist student groups have sprung up at university campuses from California to Nairobi. ... I meet Marvin Minsky, the 80-year-old originator of artificial neural networks and co-founder of the AI lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 'Ordinary citizens wouldn't know what to do with eternal life,' says Minsky. 'The masses don't have any clear-cut goals or purpose.' Only scientists, who work on problems that might take decades to solve appreciate the need for extended lifespans, he argues. He is also staunchly against regulating the development of new technologies. 'Scientists shouldn't have ethical responsibility for their inventions, they should be able to do what they want,' he says. 'You shouldn't ask them to have the same values as other people.' ... The transhumanist movement has been struggling in recent years with bitter arguments between democrats like [James] Hughes and libertarians like Minsky. Can [Ray] Kurzweil's keynote speech unite the opposing factions? ..."
October 11, 2007: Researcher - Humans will wed robots. United Press International. "The University of Maastricht in the Netherlands is awarding a doctorate to a researcher who wrote a paper on marriages between humans and robots. David Levy, a British artificial intelligence researcher at the college, wrote in his thesis, 'Intimate Relationships with Artificial Partners,' that trends in robotics and shifting attitudes on marriage are likely to result in sophisticated robots that will eventually be seen as suitable marriage partners." October 9, 2007: 50 years from now... By Pete Bryant. Wessex Scene Online. "Professor of Artificial Intelligence, Nigel Shadbolt, has preditcted that our lives are due to change in a big way. In a glimpse into the future, Professor Shadbolt has described a world where driving licenses are unnecessary as cars drive themselves, where satellite navigation devices have replaced guide dogs, all while robots are left to do the housework and also look after elderly relatives. To celebrate 50 years since the British Computer Society (BCS) was founded, Professor Shadbolt recently joined other leading academics to discuss what is instore for us in our future. Looking ahead a further five decades, it is predicted that the world will revolve around technology, even more so than it does already. ... Professor Shadbolt continued: 'As future technology becomes commonly accepted… it becomes "invisible", or at least taken for granted.' This lack of understanding is something the BCS are aware they must combat. ... Professor Shadbolt is aware of his responsibility in keeping people informed of the issues with using IT in the years to come." October 5, 2007: The next 50 years of exploration. Viewpoint by David Southwood, director of science at the European Space Agency (Esa). BBC News. "We have been in space for 50 years. It is a long time and we have certainly come a long way so far. Where exactly will we be in space 50 years from now? It is hard to say. ... Humans vs robots ... Robotic explorers, sent out on our behalf, will help us find out not just what is out there but also to address many of these questions about our Solar System. Nonetheless, there always remains the question of whether we send men and women out there with the machines. Should we send people out to the unpleasant environments we want to investigate? Isn't it better to let robots take the strain? ... However beyond our Solar System, manned exploration isn't an option. This is where robotic exploration really comes into its own." September 7, 2007: Coming to grips with intelligent machines - Technologists will gather to discuss the benefits and risks of artificial intelligence, and how to deal with computers that are smarter than humans. By Stefanie Olsen. CNET News.com. "Scary scenarios aside, a group of accomplished technologists and investors will gather this weekend at the two-day Singularity Summit to discuss the benefits and risks of advancing artificial intelligence, technical issues surrounding accelerating technology in many fields, and what to do in the event that machines one day outthink humans. 'There are different definitions of singularity. But the most useful way to think about it is that we're in a period of accelerating technology change that our species has never faced before,' said Christine Peterson, vice president of Foresight Nanotech Institute, a public interest group focused on advanced technology. 'So the question is how do we address the issue of change so rapid that it becomes difficult to project how it will affect us?' ... [Peter] Thiel has said in a statement: 'It has been predicted for a long time that AI is right around the corner, and it's taking longer than many people thought it would, with many disappointments along the way. However, it's clear that there's a massive set of issues happening, and people who don't think there's something important going on are living in a fantasy, and need to wake up.'"
September 2007 [issue date]: Where Will the Next 50 Years in Space Take Us? Popular Mechanics. "Expert Opinions For our current cover story, which commemorates the first 50 years of spaceflight by looking ahead to the next 50, PM asked leading thinkers from Buzz Aldrin (a robot fan) to Arthur C. Clarke (he wants a sub-orbital joyride) where they thought the half-century ahead could lead. Check out their predictions...."
August 29, 2007: Barney Pell - Pathways to artificial intelligence [podcast interview / 18:34]. Between the Lines blog posting by Dan Farber. ZDNet.com. "Barney Pell has a passion for artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP). His latest foray into those related fields is Powerset, a search engine that he hopes will challenge Google. He will be speaking, along with other experts in the AI field, at the Singularity Summit 2007, held at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco September 8-9. In this podcast interview, I talked with Pell about his views on AI and how the development of machines smarter than humans will play out in coming decades. ... Pell said that AI entities will get smarter but also humans, via intelligence augmentation, will gain new capabilities." August 17, 2007:Surviving Immortality - Just getting to the Singularity is the hard part. [Audio available.] I, Cringely - The Pulpit, Robert X. Cringely's weekly column. PBS. "I've been thinking about the Technological Singularity, which to proper geeks is that point where computers become smarter than humans and supposedly all bets are off as technological development races forward faster than we can catch it and you and I are either left eating bonbons or are put to death by computers no longer amused by serving us. ... What's fascinating about the Singularity is not so much guessing what life will be like then as looking at our very approach to the concept and some likely side effects we'll bump into along the way. Some very smart people are getting really worked up about the Singularity. Artificial Intelligence pioneer Ray Kurzweil, who makes his living from explaining and describing the Singularity, thinks it is generally good, that the Singularity will transform our culture in mostly positive ways and allow us to become effectively immortal. Bill Joy has a darker view, seeing really smart machines as a threat that might enslave us and certainly expose us as a culture to unexpected risks. ... The real peril in all this is that our social, cultural, and political technologies probably won't keep pace...." August 14, 2007: Our Lives, Controlled From Some Guy’s Couch. By John Tierney. The New York Times. "[I]f you accept a pretty reasonable assumption of Dr. [Nick] Bostrom’s, it is almost a mathematical certainty that we are living in someone else’s computer simulation. This simulation would be similar to the one in 'The Matrix,' in which most humans don’t realize that their lives and their world are just illusions created in their brains while their bodies are suspended in vats of liquid. But in Dr. Bostrom’s notion of reality, you wouldn’t even have a body made of flesh. Your brain would exist only as a network of computer circuits. ... Dr. Bostrom [director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford] assumes that technological advances could produce a computer with more processing power than all the brains in the world, and that advanced humans, or 'posthumans,' could run 'ancestor simulations' of their evolutionary history by creating virtual worlds inhabited by virtual people with fully developed virtual nervous systems. Some computer experts have projected, based on trends in processing power, that we will have such a computer by the middle of this century, but it doesn’t matter for Dr. Bostrom’s argument whether it takes 50 years or 5 million years." July 5, 2007: Peers into the future - How will procurement have changed by 2082? By Rebecca Ellinor. Supply Management.com. "We spoke to futurologists and academics who analyse and observe trends to see what they predicted for the future and what it might hold for the purchasing profession. Here's what they said. IAN PEARSON Futurologist, BT Group chief technology office - 'Almost all procurement in that time frame will be done by machines, from machines, and mostly for machines. But many of those will be artificial intelligence (AIs). ...' PROFESSOR JAMES WOUDHUYSEN Forecasting and innovation, De Montfort University, Leicester - '... Face recognition - reading faces - will be an important part of IT by 2082. There will be tools that translate conversations into local language and tone.' ... " May / June 2007: Human Futures. Editorial by Rick Lewis. Philosophy Now (Issue 61). [T]he future is shaped not just by blind chance and mechanical processes but also by the choices we make now. If things turn out badly, then generally the fault lies in ourselves, and not our stars. Picking this path or that is a matter of values and of reasoning, and those old friends are certainly rumoured to have some connection to philosophy. Therefore this issue is not so much about peering through the mists to see what will happen, but about what choices we should make, and what futures we could create if we want."
June 14, 2007: Future shock. By Seamus Byrne. The Sydney Morning Herald. "What are some of the most important and remarkable technologies getting ready to change the world? Let's take a trip into the future. Robotics - The future: Your house is full of robots. Some look after the housework, others take care of maintenance. Most are utilitarian in appearance, although you can opt for a designer housing, or skin, if you have the money. Whatever the task, there is now a robot to help you get it done. ... Smart buildings - The future: The walls really could have ears now. ... The magic of nano ... " June 7, 2007: How we have been fooled by utopian visions of the future - Our expectations of technology are borne out of Cold War spin, according to a London academic. Book review by Christine Evans-Pughe. The Guardian. "Since the 1960s, politicians and pundits have predicted the imminent arrival of a digital utopia in which robots would do the washing up and we would live in peace and harmony in an electronically connected, global village, thanks to the net. So why are the utopian visions of 40 years ago strangely similar to the ones we hold today? Because business and political leaders have consistently pushed a carefully orchestrated fantasy of the future to distract us from the present, says Richard Barbrook, who explores the subject in Imaginary Futures - From Thinking Machines to the Global Village [Pluto Press]. ... He is particularly interested in exposing the 'nonsense of technological determinism', which he describes as 'the theory that someone builds a machine, the machine sprouts legs and runs around the world changing it'. ... Barbrook believes we can trace today's deterministic views of technology to the cold war.... 'Nasa's spaceships would evolve into luxurious interplanetary passenger liners,' says Barbrook. 'General Electric's nuclear fission reactors would become fusion plants providing limitless energy for all. IBM's computers were prototypes of artificial intelligence.' Soon, the implication went, loyal obedient robots would be at humanity's beck and call. ... So in 2007, with our mobile phones, computers and high-speed broadband connections, are we still hypnotised by cold war spin, patiently waiting for technology to deliver our utopian future? ..." May 30, 2007: Barney Pell, Powerset CEO (video interview). By Tyler Emerson. SIAI Interview Series. "Dr. Barney Pell is an SIAI Advisor and co-founder and CEO of Powerset, a San Francisco company working to build a transformative consumer search engine. In this interview, Pell talks about advanced AI, progress in the AI field, Powerset, his involvement with SIAI, his robotics work at NASA Ames, the dangers of AI, the importance of foresight, and more." May 22, 2007: If I only had a brain - Androids, it seems, have appearance in the bag. But is their intelligence only skin-deep? By Peter Spinks. The Sydney Morning Herald (May 22, 2007). "Q&A - Indulging in some crystal-gazing, Peter Spinks asked Paul Davies what a hypothetical cutting-edge android - let's call it 'Jim' - might be capable of doing in 2045. Jim would be a sophisticated NASA machine to assist astronauts on missions to Mars. ... " May 15, 2007: Newsmaker interview with Rodney Brooks, director of MIT's CSAIL and CTO of iRobot - Sizing up the coming robotics revolution. By Candace Lombardi. CNET News.com. "Q: How close are you to each of these four objectives? How many years away do you think? Brooks: Ah. You must be a reporter. I'll never answer that, because, you know, in 1966 they thought it was going to be three months for the object recognition." May 13, 2007: We've Made Our Match. By William Saletan. The Washington Post. "When the cosmic game between humans and computers is complete, here's how the sequence of moves will read. In the opening, we evolved through engagement with nature. In the middle game, we projected our intelligence onto computers and co-evolved through engagement with them. In the endgame, we merged computers with our minds and bodies, bringing that projected intelligence back into ourselves. The distinction between human and artificial intelligence will turn out to have been artificial." May 8, 2007: Humans Tread Near Possibility of AI - Techie Pioneers Mold Humanity’s Future. Jack Yi's column. Daily Nexus 119(87) (University of California, Santa Barbara). "What is more interesting to me is discovering theories on how technology will affect our future. One week I was listening to the Technocracy podcast hosted by my personal favorite podcaster Ken Ray, when I first heard about a concept known as the Technological Singularity. I found the theory extraordinary and wanted to share it with other people. According to the theory, technological advances will give birth to smarter-than-human entities that, as a result, will exponentially accelerate technological progress. The invention of the super-intelligent entity is referred to as the singularity. ... In order to achieve this, [Vernor ] Vinge states two primary ways humans might achieve this singularity, either through artificial intelligence or intelligence amplification." May 2, 2007: The smartest futurist on Earth - If legendary inventor Ray Kurzweil is right, the future will be a lot brighter - and weirder - than you think. By Brian O'Keefe. Fortune Magazine [May 14, 2007 issue] / currently available from CNNMoney.com. "[Ray] Kurzweil is an inventor whose work in artificial intelligence has dazzled technological sophisticates for four decades. ... When Kurzweil isn't giving keynote addresses or reading obscure peer-review journals, he's raising money for his new hedge fund, FatKat (Financial Accelerating Transactions from Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies). Being a hedge fund manager may seem an odd pursuit for an expert in artificial intelligence, but to Kurzweil it's perfectly natural. ... The magic that has enabled all his innovations has been the science of pattern recognition - and what is the financial market, he postulates, but a series of patterns? ... By 2027, he predicts, computers will surpass humans in intelligence; by 2045 or so, we will reach the Singularity, a moment when technology is advancing so rapidly that 'strictly biological' humans will be unable to comprehend it. ... But a number of his predictions have had a funny way of coming true. Back in the 1980s he predicted that a computer would beat the world chess champion in 1998 (it happened in 1997) and that some kind of worldwide computer network would arise and facilitate communication and entertainment (still happening)." April 23, 2007: The future is female, BT predicts. By Clare Davidson. BBC News. "We have had the industrial age, we have had the information economy. But now for something different: 'the care economy', predicts BT's Ian Pearson. And, says Mr Pearson assuredly, women - not men - are best suited for this shift. ... Machines will be able to displace people from many of today's information economy jobs, just as they already have in agriculture and manufacturing, Mr Pearson predicts. ... 'Softer interpersonal skills that cannot be replaced by a system will be better valued than the more rigid skills,' speculates Cheryl Clemmons, a programme manager for Broadband East Sussex. Mr Pearson echoes this, saying the health service is a case in point." April 2, 2007: 20 Things You Didn't Know About... Robots - Modern robots can respond to emotion and the smell of fine wines. By Sean Markey and Corey S. Powell. Discover Magazine. "Archytas of Tarentum, a pal of Plato’s, built a mechanical bird driven by a jet of steam or compressed air -- arguably history’s first robot -- in the fifth century B.C. ... Hans Moravec, founder of Carnegie Mellon’s Robotics Institute, predicts that robots will emerge as their own species by 2040. 'They could replace us in every essential task and, in principle, operate our society increasingly well without us,' he concludes, oddly cheery." March 26, 2007: Pushing the limits - Andrew Herbert’s job is to think the unthinkable. As Microsoft UK’s research chief, he and his 100 staff are at the cutting edge of technology. By Jon Excell. The Engineer Online. "Microsoft was the first software company to create its own research organisation, which has developed a character apparently at odds with its parent company's corporate philosophy — its researchers' academic candour contrasts with the tight-lipped corporate approach found elsewhere in the organisation. Nowhere is this balance between the academic model and the business of product development more seamless than at the company's oldest research outpost, here in the UK at Cambridge University. And the relationship between academia and industry is embodied by Andrew Herbert, the group's managing director. ... The centre also hosts a group that is carrying out research into machine learning and perception. It is looking at the design of algorithms for applications in areas such as computer vision, image recognition, information retrieval and handwriting recognition. Herbert explained that the approach to these problems has changed in recent years. While computer scientists once attempted to program computers to work like the human brain, the emphasis today is on modelling the physics of the world using statistics, then building robust statistical algorithms. He said: 'We've built systems that will look at images and say "that's a picture that has a car in it, that's a picture that has a house in it", but the computer isn't being intelligent. 'It has been shown many pictures of cars and built up a statistical pattern. It's saying "this is like all the other things you showed me and if you said those are cars then this must be a car".' Herbert believes the development of this approach could be key to the future of computing." February 19, 2007: Crackpot tech ideas that may transform IT. InfoWorld. "Technologies that push the envelope of the plausible capture our curiosity almost as quickly as the would-be crackpots who dare to concoct them become targets of our derision. Tinkering along the fringe of possibility, hoping to solve the impossible or apply another's discovery to a real-world problem, these free thinkers navigate a razor-thin edge between crackpot and visionary. .... It's in that tenor that we take a level-headed look at 12 technologies that have a history of raising eyebrows and suspicions. We assess the potential each has for transforming the future of the enterprise. ... 3. Autonomic computing [by Eric Knorr]: A datacenter with a mind of its own -- or more accurately, a brain stem of its own that would regulate the datacenter equivalents of heart rate, body temperature, and so on. That's the wacky notion IBM proposed when it unveiled its autonomic computing initiative in 2001. ... 6. Artificial intelligence [by Peter Wayner]: Few terms carry as much emotional and technical baggage as AI (artificial intelligence). And while science-fiction authors probe AI's metaphysical boundaries, researchers are producing practical results. We may not have a robot for every task, but we do have cell phones that respond to our voice, data-mining tools that optimize vast industries, and thousands of other measurable ways AI-influenced computing enhances how the enterprise gets work done. ... 11. Semantic Web [by Martin Heller]: Originally designed for document distribution, the Web has yet to realize its full potential for distributing data. XML has done its part. Yet every XML document requires an XML Schema -- and relating them isn't easy. Until a viable means for surfacing and linking data is established and adopted, humans will remain the Web's core categorizing agents. ... 12. Total information awareness [by Steve Fox]: When the DoD's Information Awareness Office rolled out its high-tech scheme to track down terrorists in 2002, the program had all the hallmarks of a government boondoggle, invoking imagined -- and sometimes unimaginable -- future technologies to solve an immediate problem." February 19, 2007: Making the right robot for the right job - Creations being designed for specific tasks, but they aren't quite ready for car keys yet. By Tom Abate. San Francisco Chronicle (SFGate.com). "As Saturday's talks [at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science] revealed, the convergence of key technologies hint that, within decades, robots may be able to perform tasks that were hitherto only fiction. These advances include: -- cheap, effective sensors that substitute for biological senses; -- sophisticated software and computers that approximate nerves and brains; and -- the ability to manufacture tiny mechanisms to mimic muscles." February 19, 2007: Days of the idiot behind the wheel are numbered. By Mark Henderson. TimesOnline. "Cars are not the most dangerous things on the road; drivers are, a group of scientists says. They believe that there are so many idiots behind the wheel that we would all be safer if cars were driven by robots. Artificial intelligence, they claim, is safer than no intelligence at all -- a trait which the average motorist is apt to detect in many other road users. Technology will have advanced so much in the next 25 years that by 2030 cars controlled by artificial intelligence will be a desirable reality and a great improvement on those guided by humans, Sebastian Thrun, of Stanford University in California, told the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). ... 'Today, we are in a state where a car can drive 100 miles, plus or minus, before human assistance is necessary,' Dr Thrun explained. 'By 2010 we expect this to go to about 1,000 miles, and by 2020 to a million miles before any kind of incident would occur. By 2030, roughly, we should be able to deploy this technology on highways, where we would improve human reliability by orders of magnitude.'" February 18, 2007: Paranoid androids 'in 10 years'. By Richard Gray. Telegraph.co.uk. "As a depressed machine roaming through space in the fictional Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Marvin the Paranoid Android popularised the concept of a robot with feelings. However, the real thing will be available far closer to home in just 10 years, scientists predicted yesterday. They now claim it is essential to give robots their own emotions if they are to be capable of running independently and efficiently enough to take on a variety of domestic tasks. ... 'Emotion plays an important role in guiding attention towards what is important and away from distractions,' said Professor Cynthia Breazeal, one of the world's leading roboticists based at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 'It allows the robot to make better decisions, learn more effectively and interact more appropriately.' ... The past five years has seen dramatic leaps in technology needed to build better robots. Artificial intelligence has made it possible to create robots that can solve problems and learn." February 16, 2007: Google at work on AI? - Larry Page tells you how powerful your brain is. Short video clip from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Conference in San Francisco. CNET News.com. "My predicition is that when AI happens, it's going to be a lot of computation and not so much ... clever algorithms...."
February 5, 2007: Lenssen Predicts The Evolution Of Search. By Doug Caverly. webpronews.com. "Philipp Lenssen, the resident guru at Google Blogoscoped and a frequent WebProNews contributor, has looked far, far into the future, and he's sharing his predictions with the rest of us. They cover the next two technological 'levels' of search, and even delve into the intriguing years 'beyond.' ... On to Level 4, which Lenssen describes as a 'big and important step for the search AI.' We're not talking true artificial intelligence, but it's getting there. ... Lastly, he considers how search might develop in the years 'beyond,' and in this section, which is liberally sprinkled with the word 'may,' things get really interesting. At the core of the predictions: a self-aware, intelligent and inquisitive search engine...." January 25, 2007: Future of science debate begins - The UK public is being invited to have its say on the future. BBC News. "Sciencehorizons [http://www.sciencehorizons.org.uk/], a government funded programme, aims to get people discussing their hopes and fears for future technologies. Their views will then be fed back to the government and could help shape future science policy. ... Science and Innovation Minister Malcolm Wicks said: 'What's important about Sciencehorizons is that we're inviting anyone and everyone to get involved in the discussions, not only the scientists. Over the coming decades, we're going to have some huge ethical debates about science as new discoveries are made and new technologies emerge. We will all need to be part of making informed decisions about how we develop and use scientific and technological advances,' he said."
January 1, 2007: French marchers say 'non' to 2007. BBC News. "Hundreds of protesters in France have rung in the New Year by holding a light-hearted march against it. ... The marchers called on governments and the UN to stop time's 'mad race' and declare a moratorium on the future." January 2007: The Edge Annual Question -- 2007: What are you optimistic about? Why? Edge. "As an activity, as a state of mind, science is fundamentally optimistic. Science figures out how things work and thus can make them work better. Much of the news is either good news or news that can be made good, thanks to ever deepening knowledge and ever more efficient and powerful tools and techniques. Science, on its frontiers, poses more and ever better questions, ever better put." Read the responses to the 2007's question from Stewart Brand, Rodney Brooks, Daniel C. Dennett, Steve Grand, W. Daniel Hillis, Donald Hoffman, Ray Kurzweil, Jaron Lanier, John McCarthy, Marvin Minsky, Jordan Pollack (AI Will Arise), Roger Schank, Sherry Turkle, and many others. January 2007 [issue date]: A Robot in Every Home - The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics. By Bill Gates. Scientific American. "[T]he emergence of the robotics industry, which is developing in much the same way that the computer business did 30 years ago. ... Meanwhile some of the world's best minds are trying to solve the toughest problems of robotics, such as visual recognition, navigation and machine learning. And they are succeeding. ... I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous part of our day-to-day lives. I believe that technologies such as distributed computing, voice and visual recognition, and wireless broadband connectivity will open the door to a new generation of autonomous devices that enable computers to perform tasks in the physical world on our behalf. We may be on the verge of a new era, when the PC will get up off the desktop and allow us to see, hear, touch and manipulate objects in places where we are not physically present." December 19, 2006: UK report says robots will have rights. By Salamander Davoudi. Financial Times [FT.com]. "Far from being extracts from the extreme end of science fiction, the idea that we may one day give sentient machines the kind of rights traditionally reserved for humans is raised in a British government-commissioned report which claims to be an extensive look into the future. Visions of the status of robots around 2056 have emerged from one of 270 forward-looking papers sponsored by Sir David King, the UK government’s chief scientist. The paper covering robots’ rights was written by a UK partnership of Outsights, the management consultancy, and Ipsos Mori, the opinion research organisation. ... The idea will not surprise science fiction aficionados. It was widely explored by Dr Isaac Asimov, one of the foremost science fiction writers of the 20th century. He wrote of a society where robots were fully integrated and essential in day-to-day life. ... Robots and machines are now classed as inanimate objects without rights or duties but if artificial intelligence becomes ubiquitous, the report argues, there may be calls for humans’ rights to be extended to them."
December 17, 2006: Impersonal History - Are your past, present and future a figment of someone else's imagination? By Joel Achenbach. The Washington Post (page W11). "Back when I was a kid, the future was so much simpler, because we knew we were going to be space travelers. ... But now I'm looking at the 50th anniversary issue of New Scientist, which is full of big thinkers making predictions about the next 50 years. They don't talk much about space. Their future is more radical and, literally, mind-blowing: What we call the mind will be just another thing to manipulate. ... There are many predictions involving artificial intelligence. ..." November 18, 2006 [issue date]: The Big Questions - 50th Anniversary Special Issue. New Scientist (Issue 2578). Special reports include:
October 24, 2006: Human v2.0 - Will the rise in computer intelligence change humanity forever? Horizon (Television programme series). BBC Two. "Meet the scientific prophets who claim we are on the verge of creating a new type of human - a human v2.0. It's predicted that by 2029 computer intelligence will equal the power of the human brain. Some believe this will revolutionise humanity - we will be able to download our minds to computers extending our lives indefinitely. Others fear this will lead to oblivion by giving rise to destructive ultra intelligent machines. One thing they all agree on is that the coming of this moment - and whatever it brings - is inevitable."
September 25, 2006: Accelerating into the future. By Michael Bay. CNN. "Whether we are commuting to work, flying to business meetings or watching as human explorers venture out into space, human activity is relentless. In a world that is constantly in motion, what does the future hold? ... Will your automobile drive itself? These are some of the questions that CNN Future Summit: World in Motion will explore when it airs on the CNN International network. Hosted by CNN's Richard Quest and recorded at the Espalande Theatres in Singapore, the second CNN Future Summit program will premier worldwide on November 23, 2006. ... While human explorers make their way to the Moon and Mars, robotic missions will continue to spread throughout our solar system. ... Automation and robotics will transform the experience of driving. "I really think the days of people driving their own cars are numbered," says [Ian] Pearson. ... Another member of the CNN Nominating Committee, Sebastian Thrun, is guiding the development of robotic cars. Director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Thrun lead the development of Stanley, a robotic car that won the DARPA Grand Challenge in 2005. Stanley was named the No.1 Robot of All Time by Wired Magazine in January of 2006 and is now on display at the Smithsonian Museum in Washington, DC. Thrun is currently working on a robotic car that could drive you safely from San Francisco to Los Angeles." September 25, 2006: Ian Pearson, Futurologist - The ITWales Interview by Sali Earls. ITWales.com. "Ian Pearson works as a Futurologist for BT, where he tracks technological and societal developments to make predictions for the future. Specialising in the long term, Pearson uses his background in science and engineering, together with analytical tools, business skills and good old fashioned common sense to develop his predictions. Sali Earls indulged in a bit of crystal ball gazing and spoke at length to Ian Pearson, discussing the sometimes dark, often controversial visions for the future brought about by technological advances. ... [Q:] The BT Technology Timeline, which you co-wrote, predicts that androids will form 10% of the population in the next 10-15 years. Is this not all a bit Star Trek?... [Q:] Also on your timeline, you mention computers writing their own software, and artificial intelligence students achieving Masters degrees, again within the next 10-15 years. Is there going to come a point where this negates the need for computer scientists and Higher Education institutions all together? [A:]Yes. It's a deliberately provocative point, because the AI field is pretty much split down the middle in terms of whether these things are achievable or not. I'm in the 30-40% camp that believes that there's really not anything magical about the human brain. We're getting a greater understanding of neuroscience, and starting to get some of these concepts built into the way that computers will work, and computers don't have to be a grey box with a whole stack of silicon chips in it - there's no reason why they couldn't use organic techniques if necessary. So there's really no reason at all why we can't do the same things that a brain does. The other side of AI says that "my brain is magic, and I'm really smart and you can't possibly produce a robot as clever as me". I don't subscribe to that one - I think that's nonsense. In terms of the 2015 timeframe...." September 18, 2006: Companies envision hotels of the future. The Associated Press / available from USAToday.com. "What will the hotel of the future look like? Think robotics, customized rooms and downloadable amenities. That's according to a project called the Hotel of Tomorrow, organized by Gettys, a Chicago design firm, and the Hospitality Design Group. ... According to the project, innovations expected in the next two decades will include intelligent robots that clean rooms, change beds and even act as valets to provide automated personal service." September 13, 2006: Interview - Agent for change: Physicist turned computer guru and business consultant James Martin has set up a multimillion-pound centre to worry about the future Why try to predict the future? Haven't most attempts failed miserably? New Scientist Magazine (Issue 2568; subscription req'd). "My career has been in computers, networks and future planning in business, and I gave seminars around the world. It became more obvious as I did this that the world was getting itself into all sorts of different types of trouble, but with no solutions. So when I finished my business career I decided to have this as my next career. ... The 21st Century School is concerned with the most urgent problems that humanity faces. These are extremely serious, but there are solutions which politicians and the public are ignoring. It's especially important right now because we live in a transition time. This is the critical century: get it right and we could have an incredible future, get it wrong and we face irreversible disruption that could set humanity back centuries - or worse. The biggest problem is apathy: the public is not putting pressure on the politicians." September 11, 2006: Public 'needs to drive science.' By Elli Leadbeater. BBC News. "Science Horizons is based on the premise that progress has historically come from technological development rather than social wants and needs. In nationwide events, people will be asked to comment on simulations of how technologies such gene therapy might contribute to future life. Their reactions will be fed into a government study on public attitudes. 'We're not saying, "here is the future, what do you think?"' said project contributor Ben Johnson of Graphic Science, a science communications consultancy based at the University of the West of England. 'We're saying, "this is what the future could be like, what do you want?"' The events will range in size from major set-pieces at science centres to small group meetings in halls or even living rooms." September 2006: The Future of Robots - Futurist Ray Kurzweil explains how the boundary between man and machine is quickly disappearing. By Ray Kurzweil. Popular Science. "The aspiration to build human-level androids can be regarded as the ultimate challenge in artificial intelligence. To do it, we need to understand not just human cognition but also our physical skill -- it is, after all, a critical part of what the brain does.... Once we understand how the mind operates, we will be able to program detailed descriptions of these principles into inexpensive computers, which, by the late 2020s, will be thousands of times as powerful as the human brain -- another consequence of the law of accelerating returns. So we will have both the hardware and software to achieve human-level intelligence in a machine by 2029. We will also by then be able to construct fully humanlike androids at exquisite levels of detail and send blood-cell-size robots into our bodies and brains to keep us healthy from inside and to augment our intellect. By the time we succeed in building such machines, we will have become part machine ourselves. We will, in other words, finally transcend what we have so long thought of as the ultimate limitations: our bodies and minds." August 29, 2006: Forget the Hype about Robots Ruling the World. They Aren’t That Smart! By Bruce Deitrick Price. American Chronicle. "I’d say the whole field of robotics is in a state of reassessment. All the early dreams are in ruins. The AI (Artificial Intelligence) crowd is realizing with a shock that ordinary humans are immensely complex and talented--replicating us is akin to building a city on the moon. Replicating even lower life forms is way beyond us at this point. ... Bottom line: mimicking us is going to be tough. But entertaining and serving us, hey, these aren’t so difficult. That’s why you’ll see robots first appear as pets, nurses, guards, domestics and playmates (in every sense). These robots will do limited jobs in limited domains. They will not try to take over the building, never mind the planet." August 28, 2006: No comfort in "Last Days" - Scientists paint seven real-life doomsday scenarios showing how humankind may perish, in a terrifying special edition of "20/20." Television review by Joanne Ostrow. Denver Post. "'Last Days on Earth,' at 8 p.m. Wednesday on KMGH-Channel 7, is calculated to scare the pants off viewers. ... ABC News '20/20' offers a rather sensationalized title for what turns out to be a scientifically valid two-hour program. Just because the scenarios sound like science fiction doesn't mean they aren't potentially accurate. ... If a natural disaster doesn't extinguish the species, the machines we've created may. According to an electronically assisted interview with theoretical-physicist Stephen Hawking, we'll have to make sure the super-smart computers of the future have our interests at heart, not theirs." August 23, 2006: Profile - Phil Ruthven - The social forecaster on past, present and future. By Lucinda Schmidt. The Sydney Morning Herald. "As for the future, Ruthven predicts that the biggest surprise this century will be how fast immigration increases. ... He is also optimistic about life in the 21st century. He believes 2040 will herald an 'age of enlightenment', where artificial intelligence, including computers and robots, aided by advances in nanotechnology, will act as our 'electronic guardian angels'. The changes will be driven by what Ruthven calls 'the net generation', those now aged four to 25. 'They will be savvy and entrepreneurial,' Ruthven says. 'The most go-getter generation in 80 years.'" July 27, 2006: Technology of human extinction - The geeks may well inherit the earth, but will mankind survive cyber evolution? Opinion by Miranda Devine. The Sydney Morning Herald. "All this may reflect poorly on the mental acuity of the abovementioned people. But it does also seem to be part of a new, fumbling evolution of the mind, as technology becomes indispensable in our daily lives and the boundary between human brain and machine blurs. Slowly, but surely, we are becoming our computers. Technology is altering our ways of thinking, if not the architecture of our brains, so fundamentally that it is changing what it is to be human. At the same time, roboticists are imbuing computers with more humanity, until the two species - man and machine - may finally morph, and cyborg and android are one. ... Then there is Google, which has eliminated the mental strain of racking your brain for a dimly remembered fact. Who knows what kind of cerebral flaccidity will ensue in future generations? Will intelligence suffer without this brain exercise, the sort you might get from doing a crossword, which is said to be a protection against Alzheimer's? Or will freeing us from brain-racking allow other, more creative parts of the brain to develop, generating a new type of human consciousness? On the other side of the fence, robots are being developed with artificial intelligence that involves 'learning' behaviours which some say will lead to sentient machines, with unpredictable emotional needs and desires. ... Some scientists believe 'conscious' machines will exist before 2020...." July 23, 3006: Man-Machine Merger Arriving Sooner Than You Think [radio broadcast; audio available]. NPR's Weekend Edition Sunday. "Imagine a world where the combination of faster computers, networks, and amplified human intelligence could bring about a change so radical that those who follow will no longer be human. Some futurists and science fiction writers envision that world coming to pass, not hundreds of years from now but in the next generation. And they call this event the Technological Singularity. From member station KUSP, Rick Kleffel tries to get a glimpse of an un-seeable future." Guests: Professor Vernor Vinge and science fiction writer, Cory Doctorow. July 20, 2006: The Wisdom of Robots. By David Cohn. Wired News. "The conference wasn't all fun and games; it was also a chance for AI's best minds to discuss the field's future. At one discussion, Tom Mitchell, chair of the Machine Learning Department at Carnegie Mellon University, wagered a lobster dinner concerning the fate of AI in 10 years. 'By 2016, we will have an AI program that can read 80 percent of the factual content on the web,' Mitchell wagered. If that's achieved, it would dramatically change the face of AI, he said, creating a never-ending language-learning system fueled by the web. By extracting more and more knowledge from the web, it would read better every day, forever improving itself, he said. Several AI researchers have already taken Mitchell up on his bet.'Either I'm going to get a lot of free dinners, or I'll have to buy a lobster farm,' he said." July 3, 2006: Getting machines to think like us. Newsmaker interview with John McCarthy. By Jonathan Skillings. CNET News.com. "In 1956, a group of computer scientists gathered at Dartmouth College to delve into a brand-new topic: artificial intelligence. ... It was [John] McCarthy who put the name 'artificial intelligence' to the field of study, just ahead of the conference. With Dartmouth hosting a 50th anniversary conference this month, McCarthy--now a professor emeritus at Stanford University--spoke with CNET News.com about the early expectations for AI, the accomplishments since then and what remains to be done. ... [Q:] What's the next big thing, then, to accomplish? ... [Q:] What do you think of Ray Kurzweil's notion of "the singularity" (which envisions a kind of melding of man and machine by 2045)? ... " June 29, 2006: The Future Could be Female...‘Women’s Economy’ Erodes a (Necessary) End to Male Dominance. Online Recruitment. "According to Ian Pearson, Futurologist at BT Group Chief Technology Office (BTGTCO), the future could be female for many reasons: over the next 10-15 years Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to be incorporated in several products to make users’ lives easier, but also cause male-dominated industries requiring muscle power to disappear. However, it cannot be depended on to replace human intelligence and softer communication skills fully." June 14, 2006: The End Is Near, But First, This Commercial - On the Hill Sci Fi Channel Promotes 'Doomsday' Scenario. By Libby Copeland. The Washington Post (page C01). "The Sci Fi Channel sponsored a discussion on Capitol Hill yesterday speculating on 10 exceedingly lousy ways our species might meet its end. It was part of an elaborate promotion for a television special called 'Countdown to Doomsday,' which airs tonight at 9. ... The segment on robots taking over the Earth shows a montage of real robots, such as Honda's Asimo, a small humanoid figure that can walk. 'Don't let these cute and innocent-looking machines fool you,' [Matt] Lauer says in the show. 'Many believe they're the first soldiers on the front lines of a robot revolution that's taking over the planet.' ... 'You wanna watch the robots,' [Linda] Douglass said. 'Seriously.'" June 12, 2006: Heaven or hell? How will technology shape our future? CNN.com. "Humanity is the verge of an incredible future. Technologies that seem like science fiction are already becoming science fact as researchers develop innovations that will transform the very essence of what it is to be human. ... [Ray] Kurzveil argues that the growth of computing power, miniaturization and increased technical prowess will turn the world into an incredible place -- free from the conflicts over resources and wealth that have plagued it and in the last century and almost led to our obliteration in the fires of global thermonuclear war. ... In a 24-page article published in Wired magazine in March 2000, Bill Joy, the co-founder of Sun Microsystems, laid out his grave fears for the future of humanity. ... 'Enhancement and transhumanism opens up a real debate,' says Baroness Greenfield, Professor of Pharmacology at Lincoln College, Oxford University. 'Biotech, nanotech and cognitive enhancement will lead to a blurring of the boundaries of what it is to be human and a collapse of the traditional boundaries that define us. ... Increasingly science is nudging into the realm of ethics,' says Greenfield. 'Soon we will see the rise of bio-ethics as a serious discipline. But it should be given the status of politics.'"
June 11, 2006: Peeking at what's around the corner - Robotics as part of everyday life is fast approaching, forecaster says. By Michelle Quinn. Mercury News. "For more than 20 years, Paul Saffo has been Silicon Valley's resident prophet, a tarot card reader of sorts who makes forecasts about technology and business. ... Q: What else do you think is around the corner? A: Every decade is shaped by a cheap enabling technology. The 1980s were shaped by cheap microprocessors and the poster child was the personal computer. The '90s were shaped by cheap lasers and the poster child was the World Wide Web. This decade is being shaped by cheap sensors, eyes, ears and sensory organs for our machines. The next big consumer phenomenon -- the big revolution that will surprise everyone -- robots. The geek on the cover of Business Week and Time is going to be someone making robots." May 26, 2006: Samsung Chip Chief Predicts Fusion Tech Era. Digital Chosun Ilbo. "The head of Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor business, Hwang Chang-gyu, on Friday predicted an era of 'fusion technology' will supersede the information age. ... Leaps in semiconductor technology, meanwhile, will see memory cards with the capacity to store all the books in the U.S. Library of Congress by 2015, and artificial intelligence by 2030, he predicted." May 14, 2006: Robots 'R' us? The machines are getting smarter every day. Human beings better be thinking about science fiction becoming reality. Opinion by Charles Rubin. post-gazette.com. "The recent unveiling of the 'Crusher' robotic combat truck by the Carnegie Mellon University Robotics Institute makes it clear that Pittsburgh is a leader in this increasingly important area of technology. After decades of slow change and unfulfilled promise, it may be that robots and artificial intelligence are on the verge of transforming what people do and how we do it. Yet popular culture has long reflected how the rise of robots is not a prospect that everyone greets with enthusiasm. If people's fears are to be addressed honestly, the hopes behind the serious work of invention going on here will need to be matched by equally serious thought about the consequences for the human future these cutting-edge efforts will have. At first glance, the benefits of ever more sophisticated robots are obvious. ... In our world of dumb robots and dangerous jobs, concerns about artificial intelligence out-of-control are easy to dismiss as too speculative. But had you presented today's technologies to the 'great generation' back when they were young, many would have sounded just as implausible -- to say nothing of how they would have sounded to generations now past. Indeed, it is a truism among those who think about the implications of the accelerating rate of technological change that if speculation does not sound like science fiction, it is probably missing the boat. ... At another extreme, imagine an extended sphere of moral concern like animal rights advocacy, which would protect robots on a par with humans, the way Lieutenant Commander Data was treated by the crew of the starship Enterprise." May 12, 2006: Smarter than thou? Stanford conference ponders a brave new world with machines more powerful than their creators. By Tom Abate. San Francisco Chronicle & SFGate.com. "Is technology poised to develop machines that can outsmart their human creators? And what will happen to mere mortals if such superintelligent machines arise? These will be among the questions pondered when experts in artificial intelligence, brain research and other futuristic fields gather at Stanford University on Saturday for what is being called the Singularity Summit. ... The speakers' lineup will include inventor and author Ray Kurzweil, whose recent book, 'The Singularity Is Near,' argues that a fusion of machine and biological intelligence is not only imminent but beneficial. ... More-skeptical speakers will include Douglas Hofstadter, a cognitive scientist at Indiana University who is probably best known for his Pulitzer Prize-winning book, 'Gödel, Escher, Bach.' 'I don't think it's inconceivable that some kind of singularity entity could eventually have superior intelligence to humans, but I'd be very surprised if anything remotely like this happened in the next 100 to 200 years,' Hofstadter said, adding that if and when superintelligent machines arise, the question will be, 'whether we become animals in the zoo, or go extinct or just coexist (with it) like ants.' ... In a way, the daylong summit is shaping up as the Bay Area coming-out party for the tech-inspired philosophy called transhumanism. In a nutshell, transhumanism holds that genetics, nanotechnology and robotics are converging, creating the potential for 'human enhancements.' ... Although little known outside technological circles, transhumanism inspires intense opposition from ethical watchdog groups that dispute the notion that such technological tweaking would represent progress."
April 17 - 18, 2006: CNN Future Summit technology profiles:
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