AAAI Publications, The Twenty-Sixth International FLAIRS Conference

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Comparing Air Mission Routes from a Combat Survival Perspective
Tina Erlandsson, Lars Niklasson

Last modified: 2013-05-19


An aircraft flying inside hostile territory is exposed to the risk of getting detected and tracked by the enemy's sensors, and subsequently hit by its weapons. This paper describes a combat survivability model that can be used for assessing the risks associated with a mission route. In contrast to previous work, the model describes both the risk of getting tracked and the risk of getting hit, as well as the dependency between these risks. Three different ways of using the model for comparing routes from a combat survival perspective are suggested. The survivability for the end point, i.e., the probability of flying the entire route without getting hit, is a compact way of summarizing the risks. Visualizing how the risks vary along the route can be used for identifying critical parts of the mission. Finally, assigning weights to different risks allow the opportunity to take preferences regarding risk exposure into account.


Survivability, Air mission, Markov model, Route planning, Fighter aircraft, Unmanned aerial vehicle

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