AAAI Publications, 2012 AAAI Fall Symposium Series

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Heuristics for Improving Forecast Aggregation
Clifton Forlines, Sarah Miller, Srinivasamurthy Prakash, John Irvine

Last modified: 2012-10-19

Abstract


The aggregate prediction from a group of forecasters often outperformsthe individual forecasts from experts. In this paper, wepresent an improvement on the traditional “Wisdom of Crowds” aggregation technique that uses extra information elicited fromforecasters along with their prediction. An analysis of 64 forecastingquestions answered by a group of 1000+ novice predictorsshows that applying heuristic weighting rules to forecasts resultsin a 28% improvement in the accuracy of the group’s predictions.

Keywords


forecasting; human judgement; aggregation

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