AAAI Publications, Workshops at the Twenty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence

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Modeling Agent’s Preferences Based On Prospect Theory
Paulo Andre Lima de Castro, Simon Parsons

Last modified: 2014-06-18

Abstract


It is well known that human preferences in decisions underrisk do not always complies with expected utility theory(EUT). In fact, there are several effects that are inconsistent with basic tenets of EUT. Alternative theories have been proposed and perhaps the most well studied is Prospect Theory(PT). Recent work showed experimental results that support the idea that financial professionals may behave according toPT and violate EUT. Meanwhile, some argue that economy needs agent-based modeling, because it may be a better way to help guide financial policies than mathematical models.If financial professional behave according to PT in markets,then agent-based modeling needs PT based agents. Our ideais creating trading agents based on PT to simulate a market.However, the creation of an artificial agent based on PT as originally proposed is very hard and limited to two outcome prospects. We propose an agent model based on an extension of PT called Smooth Prospect Theory (SPT). We used this model to create agents to populate an artificial market withSPT and EUT agents. It was used to predict real market behavior for short periods. SPT agents provided more accurate predictions in crisis periods than EUT agents.

Keywords


multiagent systems, agent based financial models

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