An Integrated Modeling Environment to Study the Co-evolution of Networks, Individual Behavior and Epidemics
Keywords: Multi-Agent Systems, Simulation
AbstractWe discuss an interaction-based approach to study the coevolution between socio-technical networks, individual behaviors, and contagion processes on these networks. We use epidemics in human population as an example of this phenomenon. The methods consist of developing synthetic yet realistic national-scale networks using a first principles approach. Unlike simple random graph techniques, these methods combine real world data sources with behavioral and social theories to synthesize detailed social contact (proximity) networks. Individual-based models of within-host disease progression and inter-host transmission are then used to model the contagion process. Finally, models of individual behaviors are composed with disease progression models to develop a realistic representation of the complex system in which individual behaviors and the social network adapt to the contagion. These methods are embodied within Simdemics – a general purpose modeling environment to support pandemic planning and response. Simdemics is designed specifically to be scalable to networks with 300 million agents – the underlying algorithms and methods in Simdemics are all high-performance computing oriented methods. New advances in network science, machine learning, high performance computing, data mining and behavioral modeling were necessary to develop Simdemics. Simdemics is combined with two other environments, Simfrastructure and Didactic, to form an integrated cyberenvironment. The integrated cyber-environment provides the end-user flexible and seamless Internet based access to Simdemics. Service-oriented architectures play a critical role in delivering the desired services to the end user. Simdemics, in conjunction with the integrated cyber-environment, has been used in over a dozen user defined case studies. These case studies were done to support specific policy questions that arose in the context of planning the response to pandemics (e.g., H1N1, H5N1) and human initiated bio-terrorism events. These studies played a crucial role in the continual development and improvement of the cyber-environment.
How to Cite
Barrett, C., Bisset, K., Leidig, J., Marathe, A., & Marathe, M. V. (2010). An Integrated Modeling Environment to Study the Co-evolution of Networks, Individual Behavior and Epidemics. AI Magazine, 31(1), 75-87. https://doi.org/10.1609/aimag.v31i1.2283
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Author(s) agree to transfer their copyrights in their article/paper to the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), in order to deal with future requests for reprints, translations, anthologies, reproductions, excerpts, and other publications. This grant will include, without limitation, the entire copyright in the article/paper in all countries of the world, including all renewals, extensions, and reversions thereof, whether such rights current exist or hereafter come into effect, and also the exclusive right to create electronic versions of the article/paper, to the extent that such right is not subsumed under copyright.
2. The author(s) warrants that they are the sole author and owner of the copyright in the above article/paper, except for those portions shown to be in quotations; that the article/paper is original throughout; and that the undersigned right to make the grants set forth above is complete and unencumbered.
3. The author(s) agree that if anyone brings any claim or action alleging facts that, if true, constitute a breach of any of the foregoing warranties, the author(s) will hold harmless and indemnify AAAI, their grantees, their licensees, and their distributors against any liability, whether under judgment, decree, or compromise, and any legal fees and expenses arising out of that claim or actions, and the undersigned will cooperate fully in any defense AAAI may make to such claim or action. Moreover, the undersigned agrees to cooperate in any claim or other action seeking to protect or enforce any right the undersigned has granted to AAAI in the article/paper. If any such claim or action fails because of facts that constitute a breach of any of the foregoing warranties, the undersigned agrees to reimburse whomever brings such claim or action for expenses and attorneys’ fees incurred therein.
4. Author(s) retain all proprietary rights other than copyright (such as patent rights).
5. Author(s) may make personal reuse of all or portions of the above article/paper in other works of their own authorship.
6. Author(s) may reproduce, or have reproduced, their article/paper for the author’s personal use, or for company use provided that AAAI copyright and the source are indicated, and that the copies are not used in a way that implies AAAI endorsement of a product or service of an employer, and that the copies per se are not offered for sale. The foregoing right shall not permit the posting of the article/paper in electronic or digital form on any computer network, except by the author or the author’s employer, and then only on the author’s or the employer’s own web page or ftp site. Such web page or ftp site, in addition to the aforementioned requirements of this Paragraph, must provide an electronic reference or link back to the AAAI electronic server, and shall not post other AAAI copyrighted materials not of the author’s or the employer’s creation (including tables of contents with links to other papers) without AAAI’s written permission.
7. Author(s) may make limited distribution of all or portions of their article/paper prior to publication.
8. In the case of work performed under U.S. Government contract, AAAI grants the U.S. Government royalty-free permission to reproduce all or portions of the above article/paper, and to authorize others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.
9. In the event the above article/paper is not accepted and published by AAAI, or is withdrawn by the author(s) before acceptance by AAAI, this agreement becomes null and void.